Economic Summary - October 2009
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"The worst recession since the Great Depression has left a scorched landscape that will weigh on the labor market and broader economy for years to come, according to economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey." Most of these economists feel the recession is over and expect moderate growth in gross domestic product.
The real question is how strong will the rebound be? My projection is that it will be a very weak recovery with a very real possibility that we could see a drop in GDP in the fourth quarter meaning that we fall back into recession. Businesses will not make any significant investments in expansion until the ambiguity about the future has been made clearer. Questions surrounding health care reform and taxes are unknowns creating this uncertainty. We are all in a "wait and see" mode that is not conducive to sustainable economic growth.
NOTE: This summary contains quarterly indicators, personal income, real personal consumption, and gross domestic product that, have not changed from the last issue of B/N&V®.
Consumer Price Index
October 28, 2009
The U.S. CPI increased to 215.8 a percentage change of positive 0.2% from the preceding month which was at 215.4.
Personal Income
October 28, 2009
Personal income stood at 11,989.8 in the second quarter; had a percentage change of positive 0.91% over the 11,881.8 from the first quarter.
Real Personal Consumption
October 28, 2009
Real personal consumption was at 9,180.5 at the end of the second quarter; with a percentage change of negative 0.31% from 9,209.2 in the first quarter.
Unemployment
October 28, 2009
The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 9.8%, which is a percentage change of positive 1.0%, from 9.7%.
Oil Prices
October 28, 2009
The price of West Texas Crude increased to $70.60 per barrel; a percentage change increase of 1.6%, from $69.50.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
October 28, 2009
GDP finished the second quarter at 12,892.5; a percentage change of negative 0.25% from 12,925.4 in the first quarter.
Industrial Production
October 28, 2009
Industrial production increased to 98.5 with a minuscule percentage change of positive 0.7% from 97.8.
Let me know if you have any comments, questions or suggestions. Write David W. Weatherholt at david@bnewsviews.com
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication
Business/News & Views® / by David. W. Weatherholt
ISBN: 978-0-9823041-1-2 (electronic format)
Published in the United States of America through www.waconsult.com
Published in an electronic format by Weatherholt & Associates, LLC
First Trade Publishing: October 2008
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