Economic Summary - September 2009
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This summary contains quarterly indicators; personal income, real personal consumption, and gross domestic product, which have not changed from the last issue of B/N&V®. When a sustained increase, i.e., more than a single quarter-in gross domestic product (GDP) occurs, then this recession will be over. The third quarter of this year is expected to increase a good sign that recovery may be on the way. My expectation is that the recession will end before the fourth quarter. With that said. The pain of this recession especially here in Alaska will not end with the unemployment continuing to increase.
The fact remains that our economy is cyclical where up and down cycles are a normal and expected economic outcome. Keep a close watch on consumer price index (CPI) for inflationary signs that will have an impact on Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption. The price of oil is a leading indicator that can have a significant impact on CPI. We are all in a "wait and see" mode that is not conducive to economic growth.
Consumer Price Index
The U.S. CPI reported monthly did not change in August. It was at 214.5 in August and July.
Personal Income
Personal income stood at 11,989.8 in the second quarter; an increase of 0.91% over the 11,881.8 from the first quarter.
Real Personal Consumption
Real personal consumption was at 9,180.5 at the end of the second quarter; down 0.31% from 9,209.2 in the first quarter.
Unemployment
The U.S. unemployment rate increased from 9.4% in July to 9.7%.
Oil Prices
The price of West Texas Crude stood at $71.64 per barrel; down 3.3% from $74.11 on August 25th.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) finished the second quarter at 12,892.5; down 0.25% from 12,925.4 in the first quarter.
Industrial Production
Industrial production ended August at 96; up 0.52% from July's rate of 95.5.
Let me know if you have any comments, questions or suggestions. Write David W. Weatherholt at david@bnewsviews.com
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Business/News & Views® / by David. W. Weatherholt
ISBN: 978-0-9823041-1-2 (electronic format)
Published in the United States of America through www.waconsult.com
Published in an electronic format by Weatherholt & Associates, LLC
First Trade Publishing: October 2008
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