Business/News & Views

The Optimism Index
By: David W Weatherholt, MBA

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Volume 3, Issue #5 February 2011

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Political uncertainty, popular uprisings and general public pushback grips not only our national but also our international attention, leading to an entrenched level of pessimism.  Research for the business news segment of my radio program “Getting Down to Business” led me to a monthly publication produced by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) called NFIB Small Business Economic Trends.  A highlight of this publication is the Small Business Optimism Index. 

This optimism index measures 10 components ranging from increasing hiring, inventories and capital outlays to earnings trends.  The data has been collected on a quarterly basis since 1973, becoming a monthly survey in 1986-- making this an extremely reliable measure and record of the state of our small business community.  In the 1980-82 recession periods, the Index was below 90 in only one quarter, registering the lowest reading ever at 80.1 during the second quarter of 1980.  The latest reading from December 2010 was 92.6, a drop from November’s 93.2.  “This marks the 36th month of recessionary levels.  Only once in that period did the Index get above 93 [i.e. November] and has been below 90 for 26 months.”   Our business community is mired in pessimism as never before.

Now you might be thinking a low optimism index is really a high pessimism index and not the best way to move forward.  Yet time and time again, we have all witnessed recoveries and comebacks that would not be possible if we were not mired in the deep dark depths of some sort of issue.  Great things do happen as the result of adversity.  Americans believe in the “no pain, no gain” theory, always pulling for the underdog.

It is a fact that this country, including the business community, is in a quandary. A quandary brought to us courtesy of our political leaders who have served-up large doses of “political uncertainty” -- the bane of every businessperson.  U.S. history is replete with come-from-behind stories, and the really neat thing about these stories comes from knowing how far behind they were and how much adversity had to be overcome.  Feeling better yet?  Probably not!

The book, Washington: a Life, is an amazing story about the foundation of our country and its great leaders.  We all know how this country was founded, leading to the growth of a great nation.  Many do not stop to think about the reality of what actually took place and the utter depths of the hardships endured by this nation’s first army.  Their sacrifice made this country possible, but, most importantly, their spirit of standing on principles in the face of true adversity and making good things happen courses through the veins of every citizen of this country today. 

General Washington did not chopper in to his troops, give them a rousing pep-talk and then chopper back to a safe, secure headquarters.  He lived with his men, exposing himself to the same depredations they endured.  More soldiers died as a result of the camp-borne diseases than from actual battle injuries, making the very real danger of this conflict simply a matter of surviving camp life.  Washington was there, and his men and the country knew it. 

To put this in perspective, George Washington was a very successful plantation owner and businessman who regaled in working his property and on his manifold business affairs.  He did not long to be the leader of a revolution but became tired of the British parliament putting their “hands in his pockets.”  He spent 8 ½ years as the commander of a ragtag army that always lacked adequate clothing, food, equipment, pay and shelter, while going up against the most powerful and best equipped army and navy in the world.  At times, his men went days without food, did not have shoes, clothes or even blankets and, at one point, had only 36 rounds of ammunition per man and were actually issued spears, yet they endured, engaging the enemy with a ferocity that surprised the leaders on both sides. 

He lost more battles then he won.  Washington and his army’s real achievement was winning the war of attrition. On numerous occasions, they simply avoided direct confrontation and survived.  The motivation for this shared sacrifice was a disconnected ruling class, in England, who was trying to bail themselves out of a financial crisis by taxing their American colonies, causing a revolutionary pushback and the eventual establishment of our new republic. 

This is not a call to arms but simply a reminder of who we are as a nation and that that same can-do sprit survives today.  We should not be underestimated by others, especially not by ourselves.  We have earned our place in history and will continue to earn it by doing honorable things like running our businesses for the maximum benefit of all.  That means customers, suppliers, employees, our community and the owners.

Business/News & Views end of article

Let me know if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions.
Write David W. Weatherholt at david@bnewsviews.com


NIFB Small Business Economic Trends, William C Dunkelberg, Holly Wade, January 2011.

Chernow, Ron.  Washington a Life  Penguin Books Ltd., 2010

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